If you took Jason Heyward in your draft this year you almost certainly spent a pretty penny on him. There are few who doubt that, after finishing up his sixth season in Major League Baseball, Jason Heyward is a good player. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not. FOX Sports - Rowan Kavner 1d. But even so, it seems like he has endured some bad luck on balls put in play. While Fangraphs weighs his overall contribution at 4.7 WAR for 2013, his UZR/150 (23.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (41) paint a picture of a high-floor player. Thats 40-50 points below the NL average and ranks among the likes of Aubrey Huff and Yorvit Torrealba. Dec 11 2015 Signed an 8 year $184 million contract with Chicago (CHC) Nov 15 2015 Player declined $15.8 million qualiying offer. Bothered by a right shoulder injury that has lingered since spring training and pushed him to the DL in late May, Heyward has yet to reach the double digits in home runs and has drawn criticism from Chipper Jones regarding his ability to play through injuries. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Even if Heyward were to hit for more power, that might be offset by a drop in singles, or by an increase in strikeouts. Jason Heyward Positions: Rightfielder, Centerfielder and Leftfielder Bats: Left Throws: Left 6-5 , 240lb (196cm, 108kg) Born: August 9, 1989 (Age: 33-206d) in Ridgewood, NJ us More bio, uniform, draft, salary info 1x All-Star 2016 World Series 5x Gold Glove Wilson Overall Def Player 22 22 22 Become a Stathead & surf this site ad-free. by Handedness, Whos Been (Un)luckyThe Starting Pitchers. Meanwhile, the team is likely stuck with big contracts for the likes of B.J. It was a true comfort level, not rattled at all. As such, its hard to decide what to make of Heywards 2014 season, in which he finished 34th among outfielders in Zach Sanders rankings, as he made strides as a contact hitter while taking a step back in the power department. With better luck, health and a little more development, Heyward could be a monster in 2012. He started 13 games there in 2021 and six last season, but John Schneider is expecting more of a 50-50 split for Biggio between the infield and outfield this season, adding that hell play a ton of outfield. The lack of power does prevent easy comparison to most free agent mega-deals. Heywards .113 ISO was no less than 71 points below his career mark entering this year, he slugged just .384 and notched only 58 RBIs, despite making about one-third of his plate appearances as the fifth hitter in the Braves order. Sort the leaderboards for UBR or Ultimate BaseRunning, and Heyward floats to the top. Injuries happen and players decline unexpectedly. Matt Carpenter was the reverse. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. The team is confident in . All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, But a lot of the value Heyward accumulated last season he did in a fashion that might seem Troutian. Throw caution to the wind, even. Greatest Careers Through Age 25 Since World War II, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 30, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 35, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps Through Age 25, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps Through Age 26, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35. Oliver: .273/.367/.475, 19 HR Now, they are tasked with turning things around this year, in what should be a competitive National League once again. 3 outfielder who has yet to prove hes a reliable high-end fantasy option. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Simply put, players who dominate the competition at such a young age often end up in Cooperstown, not benched in favor of Jose Constanza. But hes younger than Dustin Ackley, Jemile Weeks, Paul Goldschmidt, Dee Gordon, Jason Kipnis and a host of other rookies who had successful debuts in 2011, and hes younger than top-ranked prospects entering 2012 like Devin Mesoraco, Brett Jackson and Travis DArnaud. 2023 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. For comparisons sake, the average age for hitters in the Low-A South Atlantic League (which Heyward aced at 18) was 21.4 in 2011. Heywards infield hit rate is three percent, which is in the same range as David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero and Billy Butler, guys whose times to first base are measured with sun dials instead of stop watches. by Retrosheet. The most important years are likely to be those at the beginning, in which the team hopes to underpay their player. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. When we know nothing else about Jason Heyward except the way he hits singles, doubles, triples, home runs and walks without regard for his offensive contributions on the basepaths or his defense, his comps would be worth $159 million. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. . He made his MLB debut that night against the Washington Nationals as a replacement for Jason Heyward, going hitless in 3 at-bats. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted The headline raises the red flag right off the bat Im probably making too much of too little. Bill James: .269/.374/.457, 21 HR Heyward was a little below the average offensively and well above the average defensively. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted The team appears content to begin the season with Trayce Thompson as the starter. Quite obviously, Im lukewarm on Heyward, and his upside might merit a few dollars more, but Id need to see him take a step forward before I start paying for him as a frontline fantasy cornerstone. The first graph is conservative, beginning the estimation of a cost of a win at $7 million with inflation set at five percent per year (although salaries have been rising at a rate greater than that amount in recent seasons and are up about 50% from half a dozen seasons ago). by Handedness, swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Consider this an expansion on Matt Klaasens crowning of Jason Heyward as the King oF Little Things if you will. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Check out the company Heyward kept among under-21 hitters qualifying for the batting title: If youre keeping score at home, there are 13 Hall of Famers and two future first-ballot Hall of Famers on that list of 22 names. Instead, Heywards dinger deficiency has been the byproduct of some ominous declines: Whats changed? Unfortunately, for studying purposes anyway, there simply are not enough of those types of players to look at. Dodgers' Jason Heyward on new environment that's more his speed. With a bad shoulder and back luck, he still held his own in 2011 Adding in 23 steals on 26 attempts and the rest of his baserunning, Heywards 22 runs above average on offense placed him within the top quarter of qualified hitters. Trejo, 27, is fine with pushing for all the starts he can at second if thats his opportunity to be in the lineup. The WAR group, which constitutes the group most closely approximating the quality of the player Jason Heyward is currently, puts Heyward on a Hall of Fame track. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Despite three home runs in his first five spring at-bats, thats not really part of his game. Andy Pages emerging, however, could free Taylor up for the infield (we'll talk about him more in a bit). Heywards defense and lack of power has the potential to confound, but stripping away the defense, we still see an incredibly valuable player with the potential to maintain or even improve his production. That was awesome, Kapler said. As to the first, this is not the article to convince someone about advanced defensive metrics, but his highlight-reel catches, mutiple Gold Gloves and three Fielding Bible awards seem to indicate there is some consensus from all viewpoints on the excellence of Heyward as a fielder. I looked through age 25, but lacking enough comps, expanded the age range to 26 years old. by Retrosheet. On Friday, the Cubs won the bidding for Jason Heyward, convincing the outfielder to come to Chicago despite offers for more guaranteed money from the Nationals, the Cardinals, and reportedly. De Paula hit .350/.448/.522 with 13 doubles, five home runs, and two triples in 53 games in the Dominican Summer League in his professional debut, and the power was intriguing enough that FanGraphs wasn't alone on an island. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. This figure is not a conclusory number or necessarily the best way for projections, but simply another method in the attempt to find a likely value for Jason Heyward. Historically, Heyward has hit about 30% of his flies and liners toward left. Crossword; Sudoku; Crossword; Sudoku _____ About Us But lets diagnose why Atlantas prodigy is turning in a subpar sophomore season. Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. If he took the same type of offensive step forward as Carlos Beltran and Reggie Smith, he might win an MVP. His expected BABIP (xBABIP), which is based on home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, and batted ball data, was about .315. He looked like a pitcher.. Its easy to lose sight of Heywards age, considering that he has been in the majors for two years, stands 6-foot-5, 240 pounds and could probably grow a beard by noon if he shaved right now. Believe it or not, on a team with Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, and Martin Prado, Bourn was tied with Jason Heyward with the most fWAR for position players on the Atlanta Braves. Currently, Yahoo! His plate discipline improved as well, as he set a new career best with a 15.1% strikeout rate, fueled by his best SwStr% and Contact% rates yet. Ideally, we could look for players like Jason Heyward who are good offensively and defensively and see how those players performed. From 2010-2015, his 25 WAR was one of the top 20 marks in the game and in his final two seasons before free agency, his 10. Rojas, a 34-year-old, glove-first veteran, was acquired in the winter to aid the groups depth. His work has appeared in numerous publications, and he has contributed to the 2014 and 2015 editions of The Hardball Times Annual. ESPN, FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline . Heyward managed to nab nine bases in 11 tries last year, and Bill James projects hell have 14 SB in 2012. dodgersnation.com - Jeff Snider 10h Read more on dodgersnation.com These comparable players here are not quite as accomplished as those from the WAR group above, which is to be expected given defense is not taken into account. Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10 All. Heyward made just one out on an attempted advance in 19 tries. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. Our premise is that their bad (or It would be a tragedy if nagging injuries keep him from playing to his full potential. Thats still well above-average, but chasing more junk off the plate certainly isnt a positive sign. Also keep in mind that ZiPS, Bill James and Oliver dont know that Heyward was taking cuts with a bad shoulder last year; they just see a young guy who struggled after a fantastic rookie year. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as "more than adequate" in the field at center. by Retrosheet. Technically, the entire 1927 Yankees couldnt legally buy a beer, either. Its not that he cant hit the ball out to all fields, but his career-best homer rate is to the pull side. Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is. At the very least, we should expect Heywards average over the rest of the season to climb considerably. But just looking at how Heyward has hit the ball, there are early signs that hes concentrating on pop. He went second to home on a single 82% of the time, which was 16th-best among 131 players. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. "I've talked . A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. by Handedness. Lets focus on Heyward and power for a minute, then. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Tony Conigliaro was unfortunately never the same after a pitch permanently injured him, while other players like Ruben Sierra and Carlos Baerga simply did not produce despite opportunities. He has played in Major League Baseball (MLB) for the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. But, after falling to a .227/.319/.389 triple-slash and 14 homers in 2011 while bothered by a bum shoulder, Heyward ranks 31st among outfielders (114th overall) in MockDraftCentral.coms latest ADP rankings. Yet, its difficult to project just how hell play during the rest of the season. Taking the runs above average on offense from the offensive group and the runs above average from the defensive group, adding in the value of a replacement player by averaging the plate appearances from the two groups and then using ten runs per win, we can get an approximate value. This spring, Heyward has hit 17 grounders, and hes pulled all but one of them. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 21 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves Eno, how do you have the nerve to put up a Jason Heyward article before an article about Chone Figgins release? It doesnt matter that Heyward has still been productive; he looks like he should be a beast of a hitter, so its odd to see him hit singles and doubles. Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and thats not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. I think the Bogaerts and Carpenter examples are meant to show that, while ground ball pull rate might not seem to be related to power at all (as you say, ground balls are not that great usually), Jeff thinks of it as an indicator of change.. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Ronald Guzmnex-first baseman for the Texas Rangers, is pumping out 97-98 fastballs. Contract: 8 yr, $184M (2016-23) AAV: $23.0M. Heres why. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors The above comparison paints an incredibly optimistic and rosy view of Heywards future, but there is some evidence to suggest that phenoms like Heyward age better than the rest of the population. 2022 Updated In-Season Projections Jason Heyward was a very good baseball player for a very long time. Searching again for players from 1960 to 2007, limiting those players through age-25 within 20% of Heywards PAs, but instead of using WAR, look at players with a wRC+ between 110 and 125 and within 15 points of Heywards 121 wRC+ at age 25. 2023 Pre-Season Projections 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. The Yankees finished second in the majors and first in the American League in 2022 with 4.98 runs scored per game. The No. I cant wait to see how this turns out. There are only four players ahead of him on both offense and defense: Evan Longoria, Johnny Bench, Barry Bonds, and Cal Ripken. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, When Ellsbury was Heywards age, he had just completed his second full season. One of the hottest young prospects in baseball right now is Atlanta's Jason Heyward. As teams expect to get the best production at the beginning of the contract, they understand that a contract will likely underpay the player in the early years and potentially overpay him as he ages with the surplus from the beginning ideally canceling out the loss at the end. Gift a Membership. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman. The Fans: .279/.378/.468, 21 HR. While Heyward is a solid offensive player, he does get a decent portion of his value from defense, which causes some concern about how Heywards value will sustain itself as he ages. He was 97-98 [mph], but I dont think that was the most interesting part of the outing. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the Ive pulled some images from Baseball Savant. The group as a whole averaged nearly four wins per season from age 26 through age 30, which would be a very good result for Jason Heyward. His arm isnt great BIS had him costing the Braves three runs in that manner but his range was so impressive that he offered center-field like defense even once he was penalized for playing in the corner outfield. Double-digit steals is a nice perk for a guy with potentially elite OBP and power numbers. rates Jason Heyward as the 28th best fantasy outfielder. by Handedness, Making Too Much of Too Little Jason Heyward, Effectively Wild Episode 852: 2016 Season Preview Series: Chicago Cubs, Evaluating the 2016 Prospects: St. Louis Cardinals, pulled ground balls have by far the lowest success rate of any balls in play. Watch as both teams attempt to take one step closer to . I looked for outfielders from 1960 to 2007 who produced defensive runs above average (which includes the positional adjustment) within 20 runs of Heywards 61.9 runs above average mark. Effectively Wild Episode 87: Baseball and the BCS/Halladay vs. Lee/Does the Success Cycle Still Exist? BIS found more under-cover evidence of his speed: Heyward only grounded into five double plays in 145 GDP opportunities. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted That search reveals the following players. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. Heyward did it all offensively as a rookie: he showed superb plate discipline (a 14.6% walk rate), hit for power (a .179 Isolated Power) and didnt punch out at an exorbitant rate (20.5 K%). But theres real doubt about his ability to deliver even 15 home runs or produce high amounts of runs and RBIs in that lineup, regardless of where he hits. Nick Frasso, who had a 1.83 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 54 innings last season, was acquired from the Blue Jays in . No matter which group you look at, he is likely to be a productive player at age 30. May 23, 2011 Atlanta Braves placed RF Jason Heyward on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to May 22, 2011. Again, the talent is too much to ignore, and the increased contact and stolen bases are encouraging signs for a guy who still has at least a season or two to go before truly entering what should be the peak years of his career. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Andrelton A. Simmons 198994 18888426 . All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. UZRs range component agrees. So what is his value in an auction re-draft league? Well know whats up by the beginning of May. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Players are always free to change their minds about anything. Jason Heyward, who was instrumental in the lore of the infamous Game 7 rain delay, was once the thorn in the side of fans looking for a scapegoat to blame for the club's lack of spending. by Retrosheet. Yeah, if continued this would make him shiftable. Additionally, Heyward had no say in November 2014, when his hometown Atlanta Braves, the club for whom he had foregone a full-ride scholarship to UCLA, traded him to the St. Louis Cardinals. They were like, Why are you not throwing it with a [sinker] grip and try to get used to it and learn how to throw it?. While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. Using a similar exercise, I found only 28 players with at least 25 fWAR and bWAR (FanGraphs WAR and Baseball Reference WAR, respectively) since the end of World War II. Everything that could go wrong did, yet he held his own at age 21. The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time establishing himself as a premier outfielder . Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. At an age when most players are chasing a trip to Omaha or cutting their teeth in Low Class-A, Jason Heyward crushed major league pitching in 2010. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. Im a little stubborn in that way. Heywards small sample of air balls also supports this. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The next group of comps considers only offensive production. He went second to home on a single. Second, if Heywards defense declines he ages, he is not likely to be of much value. . Theres a pretty good distribution of balls around the field. If you can sign him without an opt-out, you might be in the rare position of having an 8- or 10-year megadeal where the player is worth his salary every year. I dont want to start my first game of Spring Training going 3-0 on a guy or nibbling. Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. In particular, Heyward has a .188 BABIP on ground balls. FanGraphs projects San Diego as the . If we pretend we know nothing about Heywards defense, we can come up with a set of comps based solely on his hitting, even removing his value on the basepaths. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as "more than adequate" in the field at center. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. He clearly can the man stands 65. After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that Justin Upton was acquired to hit directly There are two graphs below estimating the value of Heywards comps over the next ten years. But as far as I believe, batted-ball distributions arent as noisy as, say, BABIP.
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